How Are Odds Calculated In Sports

The latest news, videos, scores and more on the biggest sports, including NFL, NBA, MLB, NCAA, NASCAR and more with Sporting News. Few bettors use fractional odds for betting sports (other than horse racing), because the conversions to understand return are difficult. To calculate winnings on fractional odds, multiply your bet by the top number (numerator), then divide the result by the bottom (denominator). So a $10 bet at 5/2 odds is (10. 5) / 2, which equals $25.

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• These odds suggest that if this fight happened 21 times (8 + 13), Golovkin would lose 8 bouts and win 13. To calculate the implied probability of Golovkin winning the fight, take the number of times he is expected to win (13) and divide it by the total number of trials (21). This results in a 61.9% chance Golovkin will win the fight.
• Answered 1 year ago. The two basic methods for American sports betting odds are the point spread and or moneyline. Football and basketball odds use a point spread method because there are enough points scored in these two sports. Baseball, hockey and soccer use a moneyline because there are very few points scored and there needs to be an effective method of determining the odds when a point spread.
• The lower the odds, the higher is the chance – according to the bookmaker's assumption – for the outcome to happen and vice versa. How Are The Odds in Sports Betting Calculated? Mathematically speaking the odds are a reciprocal of the probability of a certain outcome to happen.

December 4, 2019

In the world of sports betting, many prospective gamblers are either immediately enticed by the profits of betting, or they are too scared to hop into the lifestyle. Either of these is not the safest or healthiest way to get into betting. To be honest, a lot of betting is mainly concentrated on the mathematics of probabilities. Think about it! Have you ever wondered why so many advertisements are telling you that you will win? If so, you’ve probably thought to yourself “How come these random strangers want me to win? Won’t they be losing in the long run?” No, they won’t. Today, we will explain how you can identify the best odds and beat the bookmaker odds and begin winning games.

Firstly, there isn’t a holy grail formula for sports betting. You have to breathe in this fact before you can truly begin to look at the betting world from clear lenses. Remember that you are not betting because you feel like you have a high probability of winning. Instead, adopt the mentality of betting to increase your probability of winning over the bookmaker’s odds. To make profits in betting, your judgment should be better than the bookmakers.

To find the best value odds, you have to understand the concept of value which is important to understand any betting tips. The reward may be either positive or negative. A positive value is if you are more likely to win a wager than the chance in the odds. In other words, a positive value exists when your wager is more likely to win than suggested in the odds. If a wager is less likely to win than the odds suggest, a negative value is. You will need a positive value to make money. To make money, you’ll need a positive value.

When identifying value in sports betting, there are two fundamental steps to take. You have to measure the likelihood of the outcome and then equate those probabilities with the expected chances of the wager-related odds. Matches are very unpredictable and in football betting, there are too many possible variables to use. Therefore, you must try to make assessments using research and analysis while trusting your judgment.

To illustrate how you can identify value in real scenarios, here is an example of football betting. There is an upcoming match between Chelsea FC and Manchester City FC. We want to put our bet on the winner of the match. So, we need to assess the chances our winner will have. In this scenario, for the Premier League standings, Chelsea FC is 4th on the league table with 8-2-3 and Manchester City is 3rd on the league table with 9-1-3. The scales are tipped towards Manchester City for this matchup.

Additionally, when you want to find out the chances of winning for a team, there are many important pieces of information such as world ranking, past meetings, team value, and others. Let’s say from this, Manchester City FC holds a 72% chance of winning against Chelsea FC with 28%. Now, after taking a look at the betting sites online, we have seen that the odds offered for Manchester City are 1.42 which converts to 70.4% for the implied probability. Meanwhile, there are odds of 6.33 for Chelsea which is 15.8% as the implied probability.

From the standings and statistics for Manchester City FC, there is a 72% chance of winning. However, this is higher than the implied probability of 70.4% which means that there is no positive value. There is no positive value once the actual probability is higher than the implied probability. However, Chelsea was estimated to have a probability of 28% which is higher than the implied probability of 15.8%. With these results, it will be best to bet on Chelsea because the odds are in their favor due to a positive value.

Odds Calculator And Payout American Odds

It seems like a lot to take in, but this knowledge will help you improve significantly in the world of sports betting. Many betting tips will help you learn how to evolve your chances and this is an important step to fully utilize new knowledge on betting. Beating the bookmaker odds is the goal of profitable betting experience and winning games in the long run.

Sporting bets are extremely popular worldwide. The betting events are characterized by the odds. Let us find out what is behind that figure. Learn about the odds calculation and see the difference between 'ideal' and offered odds.

What Are The Odds?

The odds represent a chance that a bookmaker gives to the outcome of a specific betting event, e.g. to the result of a football match. In the recent times various exotic betting opportunities have occurred such as who is going to win presidential elections or talent competitions or whether the euro zone is going to collapse or not. Simply put you can bet on almost everything as the supply of betting events is truly manifold.

The odds, times the bet, determine a potential win. If you bet e.g. $100 on the victory of a home team in a football match with the odds 1.8, the potential win is $100 × 1.8 = $180. The lower the odds, the higher is the chance – according to the bookmaker's assumption – for the outcome to happen and vice versa.

How Are The Odds in Sports Betting Calculated?

Mathematically speaking the odds are a reciprocal of the probability of a certain outcome to happen. Therefore there are low odds for favorites (because there is high winning probability) and high odds for outsiders (since there is low winning probability). This is clearly demonstrated on the examples below.

Odds Calculation Step-by-Step

Let us start with a simple example with only two possible outcomes that may happen, such as a football match where two teams fight for advancement in the Champions League: either Team A or Team B can advance.

The bookmaker of a sports betting company estimates that Team A is slightly better and will succeed with the probability 0.6 (or 60% if you like). The probability of success for Team B is then 0.4 (or 40%; the sum of the probabilities must equal 1, or 100%). What are the odds that will be likely given by the bookmaker?

Let us recapitulate the probabilities of success:
Team A = 0.6 (or 60%),
Team B = 0.4 (or 40%).

The odds are the reciprocal values of the probabilities, therefore the odds are calculated as follows:

Team A = 1 ÷ 0.6 = 1.67 (or analogously in %: 100% ÷ 60% = 1.67),
Team B = 1 ÷ 0.4 = 2.50.

These are 'ideal' or completely 'fair' odds that would be given by the bookmakers in ideal conditions. Since we do not live in an ideal world, the sports betting companies decrease these fair odds by their margin, which usually makes 10% (this is their expected return). In other words a betting shop will pay you only 90% of the fair odds.

However it is logical and understandable. The betting shops need to secure a specific edge or contribution to their operation and development (it is not a profit yet since there are other costs except of the winnings paid such as rents, salaries of bookmakers etc.) and also to reduce their risks of losing.

Finally we are getting to the odds that would likely be given by the betting companies. The ideal or fair odds need to be multiplied by 0,9 or 90% (i.e. 100% minus the supposed margin 10%):
Team A = 1.67 × 0.9 = 1.5,
Team B = 2.50 × 0.9 = 2.25.

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Let us follow further examples, but first let us have a look at the abbreviations used by the sports betting companies under which the odds are provided. The above-described calculation of odds then can be done in the form of a table, which is shorter and better-arranged. There can be these possible outcomes in most betting events:

1 = home team will win (or the first player in tennis etc.),
0 = there will be a tie,
2 = visitors will win (or the second player in tennis etc.),
10 = home team will either win or tie, i.e. home team will not lose,
20 = visitors will either win or tie, i.e. visitors will not lose,
12 = there will be no tie.

The Example of the Odds Calculation of a Supposedly Tight Football Match

In the following example we assume a football match between two teams, whose winning (and drawing) chances, according to the bookmaker, are considered to be absolutely equal. It means that the probability of win, loss and tie is still the same 1/3 (or 0.33 or 33.33% if you like, but the usage of fracture for calculations is more accurate in this case). Let us put it in the table below and calculate the odds for all possible outcomes.

How To Calculate Odds Ratio In Sports

The Example of the Odds Calculation with a Favorite Team

At last let us calculate the odds of a match, where one of the teams is a great favorite. We can use the match Manchester Utd – Wigan as an example. The bookmaker estimates that the probability of Manchester Utd to win the match is 0.75 (or 75%), the probability of a tie is 0.15 (or 15%) and the probability of Wigan to win the match is merely 0.1 (10%); sum check: 0.75 + 0.15 + 0.1 = 1 (or 100%).

Note: To be exact the probability in math is set in the decimal form (it is defined in the interval 0 to 1), not in percentage. However there is nothing against multiplying it by 100 and it may be clearer for some of you. For an illustration the odds calculations below are done in % and, of course, there is no impact on the result (1 / 0.75 is the same as 100% / 75%).

For completion: The probabilities of the outcomes 10, 20 and 12 are acquired by a simple summarization of the individual probabilities, e.g. in the case of the outcome 10: 75% + 15% = 90% etc.

The Calculation of Winning Chances from the Given Odds

The whole course of action can be turned around. What is the winning chance – according to the bookmaker of a sports betting company – if the odds are for instance 1.8? If we suppose the margin to be 10% then the winning chance is (100% – 10%) ÷ 1.8 = 50%. Universally speaking:

Winning Chance in % = (100% – Margin) ÷ Odds offered.

In case of the 10% margin the formula can be shortened to: 90% ÷ Odds offered.

The winning chances for common odds are calculated in the following table.

How Are Odds Calculated In Sports

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