Kentucky Derby Sleepers 2018
- Bet on the 2018 Kentucky Derby here! Kentucky derby Sleepers Good Magic: Currently +900 at Bovada, this guy won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall as a maiden, but horseplayers jumped off his bandwagon after a disappointing third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his three-year-old debut.
- 2017 Kentucky Derby Sleeper Picks and Predictions Girvin. This colt is coming in with serious momentum from a pair of Grade 2 victories at the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby, which also placed him atop of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a total of 152 points.
Expert Picks at the Kentucky Derby. The 2021 Kentucky Derby is the 147th renewal of The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports. Live odds, betting, horse bios, travel info, tickets, news, and updates from Churchill Downs Race Track.
In the short memoir “The Kentucky Derby is Decadent and Depraved,” Hunter S. Thompson uses misdirection and deception to make readers think he’s confused by the proceedings at the Derby. He only reveals later that he has successfully covered the Louisville gala in the past and was just playing dumb to most of the natives.
No doubt much of the mayhem Thompson described is still taking place. But the prevalence of legal racebooks and horse racing betting sites has helped to calm some of the crush of Kentucky revelers in April and May. People will always go to the Derby, but you no longer have to walk 5 feet to wager on the Run for the Roses or even to watch it in HD.
There remain plenty of 50-1 and 100-1 sleepers on betting boards – but not all betting boards. With Derby-qualifying sweepstakes underway, Bovada and other giants of online Thoroughbred gambling are posting scant futures odds including 20 or less horses.
It feels like handicappers expect a lot of solid animals racing their way into the field at the expense of lesser lights.
The Derby itself offers some novel ways to wager, and the race’s official website is a nice tool for sorting through the biggest-payoff hopefuls who could still potentially run at Churchill Downs. But ultimately there is only a single horse whose wagers to-win are going to pay off in the end…and that’s the winner. Eyes are focused on colts that have a real shot – with proven trainers getting shorter odds overall.
Scroll for a look at some odds-on favorites at Bovada Sportsbook’s “Horse Futures & Props” section (available by tapping “All Sports” on the right of the top banner).
But first, a look back to 2018.
When the Hype is Justified
What a historic year for horse racing it was! Tiger Roll winning the Grand National despite an age differential that warded-off heavy futures action, proving that the old canards about 8 y/o vs 9 y/o may be bunk after all. Social media sensations like #GoWinx and various campaigns around American horses.
Of course, it all pales in comparison to what happened on 3 flat tracks in late spring. Justify won the Triple Crown and retired undefeated, becoming on the 2nd Thoroughbred to march into Louisville, Baltimore and New York and protect a perfect record at all 3 venues. Justify didn’t race as a 2-year-old which leaves us without a lot of potential evidence as to whether he belongs in the conversation as one of the most dominant colts ever. For a brief time he was impeccable.
The reason Justify didn’t race as an adolescent was most likely that he was temperamental. American Pharaoh was a lovely and kind animal, adding a touch of humor to the 2018 race as Bob Baffert cared for both Thoroughbreds. Triple Crown winners come friendly and they come surly too.
Last year’s Greatest Two Minutes in Sports was also one of the rainiest 2:00, and the rain would get worse as the Triple Crown progressed into Maryland. But Justify glided over the mud with his front-running style and pulled away from a busy crowd of contenders down the stretch.
Justify’s line shrank to (+300) by the afternoon of his Kentucky Derby appearance. Those gamblers who found the horse and handicapped it to win early in the year made out a lot better in the end.
Can we “justify” a futures wager on any of the 2019 favorites in January or February? Here’s some of the current leaders of the pack in Kentucky Derby qualifying, with my recommendations and leans attached.
Game Winner (+800)
Surprise! Another Baffert-trained colt tore through the competition as a 2-year-old by going undefeated in 4 starts. Wins at the American Pharaoh Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile have Game Winner tabbed as the early futures-betting favorite for the Derby.
The colt secured his best Equibase speed figure of 107 at American Pharaoh’s namesake race, cruising to a 4+ length victory. But what sets the horse apart is his dynamic skill-set.
Great feats in racing are often a matter of solving the unsolvable, for instance how does a runner get out to a lead in the 100-yard dash while conserving energy for the final lunge? Usain Bolt appears to accelerate and blow past the field on his way to Olympic gold, but Bolt has actually found a way to slow down far less than the competition does. All sprinters slow down gradually but he does it so gradually as to be imperceptible. The other runners are flagging while Usain speeds along.
Horses are often touted as fast starters or great finishing sprinters. Would it increase the odds of a winner if gamblers found a horse that can be relied upon out of the gate and in the stretch? Heck yeah.
Game Winner has impressed with blistering speeds out of the gate, but the Thoroughbred also has the mental fortitude and burst of pure power to come from 4-5 lengths behind. Check out this amazing clip of the colt getting almost lost in the pack before exploding down the stretch to win easily.
It’s notable that the Sentient Jet race happened at Churchill Downs, an arduous race track on which some horses start reasonably well then fall prey to fatigue and packed muscle. The dynamic Game Winner could have a natural advantage on most of the field with the ability to win any type of race.
Game Winner’s sire Candy Ride already had a Juvenile champion to his credit when the races began this cycle.
Meanwhile, Bob Baffert could become a Triple Crown winner for the 3rd time in 5 years if the horse pans out. Gosh.
Improbable (+1000)
How fitting that the next colt would be named “Improbable.” But guess what? Baffert owns this fellow too. The 3-year old colt is coming off a blistering 2018 performance that included a win at Los Alamitos Futurity in December. Improbable also wowed spectators by a dominating victory of 7+-lengths at the Street Sense Stakes. Resiliency has been his calling card – the Thoroughbred is not the best starter but clocked 108 in one thrilling charge around the turn.
Jockey Drayden Van Dyke has guided Improbable to his first 3 victories and earned his maiden Breeders’ Cup race win and Del Mar riding title in ’18.
Still, the phrase “Van Dyke vs Goliath” comes to mind when you consider the more highly-touted animal in Improbable’s way. Van Dyke’s best shot against Game Winner might be to hide in the pack and conserve energy, hoping that Game Winner is comfortably ahead and has no reason to turn on the afterburners until it’s too late.
Gunmetal Gray (+2000)
Gunmetal Gray is currently fresh off a signature performance, winning the Sham Stakes Grade 3 to begin 2019. After an impressive 2nd-place finish at the American Pharaoh Stakes, the colt struggled to a 5th-place finish at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His Equibase speed figure dropped from 100 down to 82.
Like a poor man’s version of Improbable, the Thoroughbred has closing speed but few other consistent good habits. But his jockey is Mike Smith, who rode Justify to the Triple Crown. That counts for something.
Rowayton (+2000)
Rowayton is coming off a 3rd-place finish at American Pharaoh Stakes behind Game Winner and Gunmetal Gray. A string of impressive performances saw the colt record a 102 Equibase Speed Figure. The colt has blasted out of the gate at blazing speeds, but maintaining those high speeds on a longer track will be a question mark going forward.
Again – Churchill Downs is an arduous track and the Derby is a difficult race. I don’t expect this colt’s odds to shorten, but I’ve been a liar before.
Signalman (+2500)
Trained by Kenneth G. McPeek, Signalman is riding high after a stellar victory at the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Signalman finished well on a muddy 1 and 1/16th-mile track and finished at 1.45.29. In Grade 1 action, the colt also finished 2nd in the Breeders’ Futurity and 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, his best Equibase Speed Figure is 97.
Coliseum (+2500)
A 3rd potential Bob Baffert entry, Coliseum caught the attention of many with his debut win at Del Mar in November. The colt was impressive, to the tune of winning the race by 6 ¾ lengths. Coliseum could not ride the momentum into his maiden race of 2019, however, finishing in 6th place at the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. A slow start coupled with a wide-run race was simply much to overcome.
According to Baffert Coliseum “wanted to be too aggressive,” but the horse has shown enough maturity in training that we can look for more consistency soon. Trainers always say that…even the unique Baffert.
Knicks Go (+3300)
My favorite semi-sleeper on the Bovada board is Knicks Go, who surged into Kentucky Derby discussions with his victory at the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and of course (in a more negative sense) after merely showing in the head-to-head stretch run with Game Winner. But the horse’s pedigree includes having been sired by Paynter, a brave horse who could win from the pack. That’s a good sign, since it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more tight squeezes and surprises on the Derby track this May.
It may not seem like it in the dead of winter, but many people are already discussing this May’s running of the Kentucky Derby. With that in mind, we have a look at the early 2019 Kentucky Derby sleepers. From this group, you just might be able to choose the horse that ultimately captures the fabled Run for the Roses.
Horse racing enthusiasts don’t really need the calendar very much when it comes to thinking about the Kentucky Derby.
As soon as two-year-olds start to make their way to the track in the second half of the year, prognosticators have their eyes on the ones who seem to have the potential to win the most prestigious race of all. Even in the coldest months, they are keeping track of how these freshmen are developing.
That’s why it’s never really too early to begin to talk about the horses that could be surprising contenders. It isn’t until the first Saturday in May when the race takes place, but already the early 2019 Kentucky Derby sleepers are starting to line up.
Why is it so important to be able to spot these upset-capable contenders? Well, there is the simple pride gained from being such an astute judge of equine talent. But more than that, it’s about finding horses who could make for enticing value plays when it comes time to bet the race.
No major race is more wide-open than the Kentucky Derby, what with 20 horses crowding the racing surface, many of whom have never raced at the distance of 1 ¼ miles. Upsets are not at all uncommon. That’s why spotting sleepers can be an extremely valuable talent.
And that’s why we’re talking about some potential early 2019 Kentucky Derby sleepers. Not only will we identify a few who could be among the top competitors, but we’ll also explain why they might be flying under the radar a bit.
If nothing else, these are names to watch when spring arrives, many of the Derby prep races take place, and the field for the grandest race of all starts to take shape.
What Makes a Kentucky Derby Sleeper
It might not make sense that somehow there can be sleepers for a race that is still months away from taking place. After all, many horses will be derailed by injuries or poor performances from now to then. And there could be horses who no one has heard about to this point who might just surprise everyone. (Justify, anyone?)
Still, a good way to determine sleepers is to check out whenever the Kentucky Derby sets up a round of futures wagering. For those who are unaware, a futures wager in horse racing gives you the chance to bet on a horse to win well in advance of the race.
The risk in a futures wager is that the horse, for whatever reason, won’t actually make it to the race in question. Unlike a horse that is scratched on race day, you don’t get a refund from a futures bet if your horse doesn’t race. That means that you’ll come up empty, pretty much through no fault of your own.
The compensation for the bettor comes from the fact that the odds you can get from a futures bet are much more favorable than if you wait to bet the horse once the actual morning line odds are set the week of the race.
For example, most Kentucky Derby favorites go off at somewhere between even money and 3 to 1. But a futures bet will usually get you odds of much higher than that, even if you happen to pick one of the top choices.
For example, in the first 2019 futures pool held back in November, Game Winner, the 2018 Breeders Cup Juvenile Champ, was made the favorite by the bettors at 5-1. The co-second choices, Coliseum and Instagrand, settled at 10-1 apiece. Those are fetching odds for the three top choices.
Bettors can also go with “the field” in a futures pool. That term refers to any horse besides the specific ones who were officially listed. The field in the November pool stood at 6-5, which shows how many bettors believe that it will be a horse who either is making a late start in its career or hasn’t yet done anything special who will eventually emerge.
The next futures pool for the Derby is scheduled for February 8th to the 10th, giving bettors all over the world their next chance to speculate on possible early 2019 Kentucky Derby sleepers. (There will be two more futures pools subsequent to that, in March and April.)
With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at several horses who might be a little bit underestimated at this point. Any one of these has the capability to win it in May if things break right in the interim and on race day itself. See what their odds look like in the coming months of futures pools to see if you can take advantage.
Signalman
No horse was bet down more than this son of General Quarters in the first round of Futures betting. He dropped from 50 to 1 to 30 to 1. That is significant in a pool like that, where the tendency is for most horses to see their odds go in the other direction.
Trained by Ken McPeek, Signalman was a game long shot in back to back Grade 1 events as a two-year-old. He came from last to finish third in the Juvenile behind Game Winner. That leads us to believe that the longer distance of the Derby could be right up his alley.
It is interesting to see him get betting attention in the Futures Pool that eluded him during his actual races, where he never went off at shorter odds than 4-1. Could it be that the wise guys are just catching onto this closer? We’ll see how it shakes out.
Maximus Mischief
Back when it was called Philadelphia Park, Pennsylvania’s premiere thoroughbred track produced Smarty Jones, who captured the Derby and was not too far from a Triple Crown. Now the track is known as Parx Racing, but it has another Derby contender in this colt.
If you believe in speed figures, Maximus Mischief is the guy for you. In his second career start last year, he posted a 104 rating. That is the peak performance of anyone in the 2-year-old class, besting even Game Winner’s 103 in the Juvenile.
Question marks abound. The competition he faced at Parx in romping to two straight wins last fall was suspect at best; in the race where he posted the high number, there were only two other horses in the field. But there seems to be something special about this youngster, something that might just make him worthy of a Philadelphia flier of a bet.
King for a Day
At this stage in the game, you should be looking for connections and pedigree for determining factors in a possible sleeper. This colt’s Dad (Uncle Mo) and Grandad (Indian Charlie) had all kinds of talent, even if some bad luck kept them from displaying it during their 3-year-old campaign. And you don’t get more distinguished than Todd Pletcher in terms of big-stakes trainers.
But King for a Day has more than just intangibles going for him. His gutsy maiden victory at Belmont Park stamped him as one to watch. And although he came up short in his first graded stakes action, a wide trip was the major culprit, not any lack of talent.
Because he wasn’t one of the horses competing in the Juvenile, he might be overlooked. Yet the way he drew off from a challenge in that aforementioned maiden victory was impressive. As a matter of fact, it’s the kind of move that Derby winners make, which makes his 53-1 odds in the last Futures pool seem egregiously large.
Conclusion
These are three horses that have all the makings of early 2019 Kentucky Derby sleepers. Much can change between now and when they line up in May. But these three are a good place to start when you start looking off the beaten path for your potential sleeper Derby picks.