In Game Betting Football
The following is applicable to all Football games, including NFL, NCAA College Football, CFL and Arena Football. Abandoned or postponed games are void unless rearranged and played in the same. Firstly, in- game betting offers the same types of wagers as pre-match including moneylines, spreads, and totals. Early in the game first half options are also available. Some sportsbooks will also offer.
The sports betting industry is on a meteoric rise in this country and we’re approaching one of the first NFL seasons where it will be possible to legally wager on most games outside of Nevada. Even in a largely illegal market, the American Gaming Association estimated that bettors wagered over $4.3 billion on Super Bowl LV alone.
With ample time between games and a wealth of strategy to consider, football is an understandably popular sport for mainstream bettors. Using analytics to gain an edge in predicting how games will unfold can help the savvy bettor go against the grain to earn big paydays. Conversely, the popularity of NFL betting can help bettors isolate a potential winner by piggybacking on research conducted by the masses.
This page can serve as a reference for residents of states that have legalized online betting. It will break down the basics of NFL betting, from various types of bets, to strategy, to tips on how to predict trends and think independently. If you heed this advice and weigh your options and bankroll carefully, you could turn a consistent profit throughout the 2020 NFL season.
NFL team betting guides
Division | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
AFC East | Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | New York Jets |
AFC North | Baltimore Ravens | Cincinnati Bengals | Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers |
AFC South | Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans |
AFC West | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas Raiders |
NFC East | Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | Washington Football Team |
NFC North | Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers |
NFC South | Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints | Tampa Bay Bucs |
NFC West | Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles Rams | San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks |
Where is NFL betting legal?
When the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in May of 2018, it opened the door for individual states to legalize sports gambling. Beginning with New Jersey (the original plaintiff in the PASPA case), several states quickly moved to legalize and regulate the industry within state lines. Betting on the NFL and other professional sports is still not federally legal, but residents of the following states can place bets at live sportsbooks:
Nevada
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Delaware
Mississippi
West Virginia
Rhode Island
New Mexico
Arkansas
Iowa
New York
Oregon
Indiana
Illinois
Montana
Most other states in the US have introduced some sort of bill that would legalize sports gambling. Of course, some states are far closer than others to legalizing the industry. Visit our state betting pages at TheLines.com to get a look at the status in each state.
Best NFL betting sites and apps
There are a number of apps available for sports betting in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Indiana, West Virginia and Nevada. Some of the best:
The top players in the industry are DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet, and SugarHouse.
How does NFL betting work?
There are several ways to bet on NFL action. We’ll begin with the most simple type of bet: The moneyline. Taking the Moneyline means you’re betting on the winning team regardless of the margin of victory. Underdogs will get plus-odds on the moneyline and the favorites will have negative odds. For example, if a team is heavily favored they will be listed as Patriots (-230), meaning that a successful $230 bet on the Patriots pays out $100.
This differs from betting on the point spread, which accounts for the expected margin of victory. If the Patriots are heavily favored at home, they might be listed as -13.5, meaning a bet (likely at something close to -110 odds) on the Pats would only pay out if they win by 14 points or more.
Gamblers can also target the overall betting total of a game, which is usually listed as a number around 48.5 with the proposition of taking the Over or Under on a point total. Some sites offer the opportunity to bet on the expected point total of one team (23.5 points for example).
Then, there is often an extensive number of betting props (or propositions) where gamblers can wager on the individual performance of a player, the type of score to open a game, and the specific margin of victory. These options are often more expansive in prime time and playoff games.
Gamblers can choose to combine multiple propositions on a game, or multiple bets on different games, into a parlay. This wager is an all-or-nothing proposition which only pays out if all (anywhere between two and a dozen) bets are successful. The more bets added to a parlay, the greater the potential payout.
A teaser is a form of parlay that involves a combination of two to ten wagers in which you can adjust the point spread or total to your specifications. These bets are therefore more likely to succeed, but the payouts are smaller than in a parlay.
Finally, there is an option to bet on NFL futures. Rather than betting on an individual game, Futures offer gamblers the opportunity to bet on the eventual Super Bowl champion, divisional champion, or the number of wins that a team will accrue during the regular season. There are also futures bets available on postseason awards and other ongoing storylines.
Super Bowl odds 2022
NFL live betting
Another method of wagering on the NFL is live betting, also known as in-play betting. No longer are gamblers required to place their bets before opening kickoff and ride out the storm. Now users can watch a game unfold for one, two, or three quarters and place their bets based on updated odds.
The odds on online sportsbooks will shift throughout games and sometimes it won’t be possible to place a live bet until a team finishes their current drive and the odds can solidify. This can be a very effective method for the experienced sports fan. Those who can read how a game is unfolding in the opening minutes can target a line aggressively.
For example, the most recent Super Bowl between the Patriots and Rams turned into an offensive quagmire where neither team appeared poised to rack up many points. Those viewers that read into game flow and placed a bet on the Under (even as it shifted lower) were rewarded by a comfortable payout in a game that ended 13-3.
NFL betting trends
There are several free sites that will disclose information on where the public is betting in terms of the moneyline, point spread, and point total. These trends can lead to a shift in the lines as sportsbooks try to adjust when too much money is coming in on one side or the other.
These trends can also indicate which side of the line is a better bet based on the sheer number of bets coming in. However, the percentage of bets coming in on one side or the other is often not as telling as the percentage of money coming in on one side of the line.
A ton of bets indicates that the reactive public expects a favorite to roll, but a ton of money on one side indicates that experienced gamblers or “sharps” have found something in their research to inspire confidence.
Following the money usually profits, but there is a high level of risk and reward in “contrarian handicapping” by going against the public and backing an underdog at plus odds.
NFL line shopping
With so many sportsbooks and platforms competing for your wagers, there’s no reason not to shop around for the best deal. Some sites might have a team with a line of -4 (-110) on a particular game, but another site could have the same team at -3.5 (+120). There is generally an industry standard, but even a sleight differentiation can lead to huge changes in dividends in the long run. It’s vital for bettors to shop lines on multiple sites even if they don’t have a huge bankroll. If that’s the case, simply decrease the amount you’re betting on each game.
You can also shop lines by timing when you place your bets. Oddsmakers will set an Opening Line early in the week, but that could change based on how the public bets the game. Sometimes it makes sense to hammer an Opening Line right away so that you get the best odds possible. For example, the Packers could open at -7 at home against a poor opponent, but after 90% of bets come in on Green Bay, that number could rise. Conversely, the underdog might become appealing late in the week if the spread rises to 13 or even 14 points. Waiting for the right line can create the perfect opportunity to bet against the public at even better odds.
NFL Betting Tips
Finding a betting formula
Consistent success in NFL betting is hard to come by, since sportsbooks are often eerily accurate in how they set Spreads and Point Totals. In order to turn a profit, bettors have to find their own formula for determining value and potential winners.
It’s possible to “follow the masses” by betting on favorites that are seeing a huge percentage of wagers, but it is far more reliable to analyze trends and look for value based on those raw numbers.
As the season progresses, it can become apparent which teams have a tendency to “play down” to their opponent. Certain teams tend to play better when going up against heavy favorites, and many teams tend to play better or worse in prime time games. Analyzing a teams’ recent travel schedule, results on the road vs. at home, and tendency to rebound after a loss (see Bill Belichick’s Patriots) can help bettors find a winning formula.
There are certain analytics available for free on many sites that can help you predict how a game will unfold. Here are some of the key analytics that we use to predict game flow:
- Pace (the average number of plays a team runs per game) – This can primarily help you identify fast-paced games that are likely to go Over the total, or slow-paced games that will go Under.
- Offensive efficiency – Especially in the red zone, offensive efficiency can serve as a great indicator for which teams are capable of finishing drives with touchdowns and therefore covering the spread. Pass yards per attempt is another indicator of which teams are successful on offense in terms of controlling possession and creating points.
- Turnovers – On the other side of the ball, teams with great defensive efficiency in the red zone may help games stay under the point total. Teams that have shown an ability to create turnovers are far more bankable in terms of hanging close in games and potentially stealing a game when they’re underdogs.
- Win Probability – This is an advanced tool that can help tremendously with live betting. Algorithms can provide the likelihood of a team holding on for the win and that makes for a very safe bet.
- DVOA – There are comprehensive numbers on how defenses perform against specific position groups. There are also numbers on how an offensive line performs in terms of creating space at the second level and whether defensive lines are stronger on the right or left side. Match up the numbers from each team to consider whether star players will have more of an impact and sway the outcome.
- Home Field Advantage – Teams such as the Packers, Chiefs, Saints, and Patriots have a tremendous home-field advantage for several reasons. Lofty point spreads in those venues should be considered with more weight than a lofty point spread for a team like the Bengals, for example.
Each game brings its own criteria in terms of analytics and there is almost always ample time to crunch the numbers and find an edge.
NFL betting mistakes to avoid
Sports gambling can be a destructive force and should not be taken lightly or considered as a main source of income for anyone but the most experienced handicappers. Here’s a list of a few of the pitfalls that can turn a harmless habit into a money-draining problem:
- Chasing your losses: Gamblers can be overcome by a need to be “made whole” after losing their initial bet. This can be problematic during NFL Sundays since there is a new wave of games starting at 4 p.m. EST and two prime time games providing the opportunity to go “double or nothing” after an unsuccessful run in the early games.
- Managing bankroll: Again, the spreads and totals assigned by sportsbooks are often extremely accurate in terms of the final result, which means that few bets are a “sure thing.” Gamblers need to manage their bankroll wisely and avoid betting big on too many games regardless of their confidence level.
- Emotional betting: While gambling on NFL games should be fun, it’s not fun to lose your money because you were afraid to bet against your hometown team. Gamblers should always bet based on data, trends, and their gut feeling, rather than by their allegiances as fans.
- Hoping for longshots: It’s important to get good odds on a wager, but taking a bet that has little chance to come to fruition is not a reliable method. A horse with 50/1 odds would certainly pay out handsomely in the Kentucky Derby, but there’s a reason nobody expects that horse to have a shot at winning the race.
- Banking on favorites: Conversely, it’s unwise to always follow the public and take the more popular team with your wagers. Things change on a weekly basis in the NFL and teams always find a way to surprise. Remember that the other guys get paid too, and they’ll fight to the final whistle to post a more respectable score and potentially get under a lofty point spread.
- Betting while impaired: Again, NFL Sunday is a time to relax and enjoy a few adult beverages, but don’t get carried away while intoxicated. Accept losses when they come and avoid becoming overconfident because you’re feeling loose and unafraid of losing a few hundred dollars.
Online betting vs. retail sportsbooks
Few states have legalized online betting within state borders because it’s so difficult to regulate. But if you’re in a state with legal online betting, there are clear benefits to that platform. While retail sportsbooks will only accept bets before a game kicks off, online betting sites allow users to bet throughout the contest and adjust to live odds. The convenience of betting from your phone or laptop is hard to beat. That’s why live sportsbooks will offer promotions and try to enhance the in-game experience in order to draw in more numbers.
How to watch NFL games
Every Sunday select NFL games are broadcast on local TV. Viewers can watch any game by purchasing the Sunday Ticket through DirectTV, or the scoring highlights and exciting finishes compiled by the Red Zone channel. There are also options to stream NFL games through various online platforms. During the 2019-2020 season there will be Thursday Night Football games from Week 1 to Week 15 that will be broadcast on FOX and NFL Network. Sunday Night Football games are broadcast on NBC and ESPN carries Monday Night Football games.
One of the coolest new ways to bet on sports is live betting. Sometimes referred to as in-play betting, in-game betting, and holy moly you’re crazy betting, the format of wagering has come about with the growth of online sportsbooks. You see, outside of the obvious convenience perks online betting has to offer, it also has the ability to utilize technology to offer some different ways for bettors to make money and get in the action. We introduce you to live game betting!
So, before we get into the strategies you need to dominate live betting, we need to make sure everyone understands exactly what it is. Live or in-game betting is when you are able to place wagers on a game after it has started. Traditionally, all action was closed as soon as the game began. We did see brick and mortar sportsbooks start introducing halftime bets (lines put out at halftime that reflects action in the first half) which was the first move towards in-game betting.
Now, it’s gone full-on wild! Some sports betting sites will let you bet at random points during the game, while some will go as far as letting you place wagers after every single play! As you can imagine, this creates a lot of opportunities to win big. It also creates a lot of opportunities to lose big if you don’t know the right strategies to come out on top.
Where on Earth are you going to find those strategies? Oh, look! Here they are. Come on, we think we’re funny at least a little? Anyways, our team of betting experts has compiled a huge list of the most important in-game betting strategies that you need to come out on top. While it’s still always going to come down to your ability to pick winners and find value, these strategies will help point you in the right direction and give you the framework you need to win big.
If you’re ready to learn how to dominate in-play betting, let’s get started.
Why There Is So Much Value in Live/In-Game Betting
One of the first things that you need to understand in order to beat in-game betting is why there is so much value in it. By understanding why the value exists, it can give you some insight into exactly what you’re looking for and what is important to pay attention to. Let’s take a look.
When sportsbooks put out their opening lines on games, they have a big advantage on their side – time. They have several days where they can do their homework, run their algorithms, consult the experts, see what every other book is doing, and ultimately put out a pretty accurate line. This means that the opportunities to find bad lines that are way off are going to be limited. They are not impossible (in fact, they happen a lot), but they’re able to heavily minimize these bad lines.
What happens when you take that time away? Well, it decreases the accuracy of the sportsbook’s lines. When they’re forced to set a line in the blink of an eye, they have to rely on their computer algorithms which are certainly not perfect. They don’t have time to have a team of experts pour over the data to see if they’re making a mistake or not.
This is exactly what in-game betting does. It takes away the time that the book has to make sure they aren’t making any mistakes. But, that’s not all. When they’re forced to rely on computer simulations and algorithms, they’re unable to analyze the intangibles of the game. If you see something like an injury that hasn’t been reported yet, or the flow of the game shifting, or the crowd playing a bigger role than expected, or anything like that, you’re going to have the edge over the computer.
Not only does in-game betting take away time and make for potential bad lines, but it has a huge impact on the people that are betting. One of the reasons sports betting is so profitable is because the betting public is not very smart. They tend to bet more with their heart than their head and shift lines incorrectly creating value opportunities for you.
When do you think bettors are more emotional, before the game or in the heat of the action? If you guessed the latter, you’re correct. In-game betting tends to attract these impulsive bettors due to the nature of the format. These bettors have a tendency to fire with their heart or chase their losses which creates a lot of bad line opportunities. Let us rephrase that; it creates A LOT of bad line opportunities. We felt the need to put that in caps because of how often you’re going to see it.
Put all of this together, and you have a pretty awesome opportunity to make some killer money betting on sports.
An Interface Can Make or Break You
The absolute biggest difference you will see between online sportsbooks these days is the quality and efficiency of their live betting platform. We’d seen some on one end of the spectrum that looks like they spent 10 years masterfully designing it with the user in mind. On the other hand, though, we’ve seen some live betting sites that look like they were made with duct tape, a 12 pack of beer, and a plan to make people angry.
Why is this included in our strategy section? It’s because a bad user interface cannot only frustrate you, it can cost you money. Here’s the thing. Bets come at you lightning fast when you’re betting in game. Lines are always changing, and new opportunities are coming and going at the drop of a hat. Because of this, you’re going to need all the help you can get to see these changes so you can quickly evaluate them and decide if there is value that you want to jump on.
Additionally, we want to see some sort of indicator that pops up letting you know that a line has changed or become available. The best that we’ve seen are sites where they will highlight the bet in red or green to indicate a better paying line or a worse paying line. This ensures that you don’t miss anything, and you’re aware of changes as they happen.
We also are looking for speed within the interface. The lines are going to be changed in real-time, and they are not going to wait for the site if it is slow. Yes, even though the site is making their own lines, they still aren’t going to wait for themselves if the server is running slowly. They would rather you have a bad experience than give away a bunch of money with a line that is too slow. This is why a betting site that has proper technological resources backing the product is important.
The last things we like to see are the little things that make the experience smoother and much more efficient. First, we want the buttons and betting to be well laid out. If the buttons are too close together, hard to understand, or anything like that, it puts you at risk of making an incorrect bet in the heat of a game. That can get really expensive quickly.
Here’s the takeaway. Do a little homework before you get into live betting and find a site with a great interface. Don’t settle for second rate because it’s going to cost you money when you’re in the middle of betting. To help you out, we wanted to include a few recommendations of sites that we know have amazing in-game platforms. You certainly don’t have to use these, but they’re pretty awesome.
Look for Hedging Opportunities
One of the coolest things that you can look to do with in-game betting is lock up profits from your pre-game bets. Now, whether you want to do this or not will be completely up to you as some people might say you’re giving up value by doing it. But, for a lot of us, we would prefer to lock up a guaranteed win even if it lowers the potential we can make. Let’s explain a little more what hedging is and look at a real-world example. This will make what we’re trying to say a lot clearer.
Hedging is when you bet on the other side of the game to lock up a potential profit. Here’s a real-world example from a recent baseball game from one of our staff members. The Milwaukee Brewers were playing against the Colorado Rockies. Our staff member chose to bet $50 on the Brewers to win at (-145). This means that if the Brewers were to win (as they were the favorites), they would receive $34.48 in profit.
Around the 5th inning of the game, the Brewers were up 2-0. Our staff member checked the in-game betting lines, and you could bet the Rockies to win the game at +616. This was an opportunity to hedge our staff member chose to jump on because they thought this line was way too high.
They chose to bet $8.50 on the Rockies in game. The profit on this bet would have been $52.36. Why did they do this? Well, let’s look at the two possible outcomes of the game now and what it would do to their profit or loss.
If the Brewers won, our staff member would get $34.48 in profit from their initial bet. But, they would lose their $8.50 Rockies. This would give them a total profit of $25.98.
If the Rockies won, our staff member would lose their initial $50 bet on the Brewers. But, they would win their Rockies bet for $52.36. This would break them just about even with a slight profit of $2.36.
So, no matter who wins the game now our staff member is a winner! Sure, they’re still rooting for the Brewers to win so they can turn a profit, but if they happen to lose, oh well. Yes, they were giving up $8.50 of potential profit on the Brewers bet, but for them, it was worth it to lock up a complete freeroll.
Hedging is going to be a personal preference choice for you. If you like the opportunity to lock up guaranteed wins, go for it! You can also use hedging to lower your risk. You don’t have to always bet the amount that breaks you even on the other side of the bet.
If our staff member just wanted to limit their risk a little bit, they could have bet something like $4 on the Rockies at +616 which would pay out $24.64. Now, if the Brewers win, they are still getting over $30, but if they lose, they’re only losing about half of their bet ($25).
It’s up to you, but if you’re someone who likes a sure thing and is willing to sacrifice a few dollars of profit for it, you should keep your eyes open during in-game betting. The more likely your bet looks to win, the higher the payout on the opposing squad will be. You probably don’t want to do this every single game, but if you happen to find a line that is way too high, it could be a good opportunity to jump on it. Had it only been the Rockies +250, it might not have been such a great deal. You’d have to bet $20 to get a payout of $50, which means you’d only be playing for $15. But, you’d still be locking up a win, so that’s up to you.
We can run what-ifs all day. The bottom line is that it’s up to you what you want to do. Just be aware that live betting affords you these opportunities.
Scout Out the Bets You’re Going to Watch Prior
If there is one word that we can use to accurately describe in-game betting, it is fast. The bets and the numbers come at you fast and if you aren’t prepared, you’re going to find yourself behind the ball and missing out on a lot of value or the bet you want completely. The best way to get ahead of this is by scouting the bets you’re interested in beforehand and having a plan of attack.
Obviously, you aren’t going to be able to see what the lines are before the game starts. You’re only going to get those number when it’s crunch time. But, you know what types of bets are going to be offered, and you can have a plan of attack. The best way to do this is to operate in if/then statements.
This allows you to be ready for certain instances where you think you’re going to be able to find value. Let’s take a look at a few potential examples of how you might scout out a bet and prepare yourself for a game. You might even find potential opportunities where you choose not to bet before the game but wait for the chance of something more lucrative in-game.
Let’s say you’re going to be betting on the Cleveland Browns vs. the New York Jets. Let’s say that the opening line is the Browns (-3). Let’s also say that you want to bet $50 on the game and you decide to take the Browns. But, here’s something you might try doing that a lot of sports bettors like. You run the risk of missing out on value, but you also have the risk of getting a really awesome opportunity. You can bet $25 on the Browns before the game and save $25 to bet on them in game if a certain opportunity arises.
What you might be waiting for is the Jets to score first. If the Jets get the ball first and put points on the board, you’re going to be able to get an awesome adjusted spread on the Browns (something like even/pick em) or a much better payout on the (-3). You might get it at something like +150 instead of (-110). This means your $25 bet will now yield $37.50 instead of $22.73 like your before the game bet.
Now, this obviously only works if the Jets score first and the public starts to fire hard on them. But, it can be a good opportunity to take a little chance. The worst thing that happens is that the Browns score first and you don’t get to make your second bet, but your first one is off to a really good start.
You can also make contingency plans based on how certain things appear to be working or not working in the game.
Let’s say that you think a particular football team is going to win if they come out and just hammer the ball on the ground, but you think they’re going to lose if they try to stick with the passing attack. Well, you can elect not to make a bet before the game and wait to see what approach they are taking in game.
You’ll have to be quick to get a bet in if they are going with the run (because you don’t want to wait until after they score), but you can get a pretty similar to opening line and have the information you were looking for.
The possibilities are really endless as to what you can prep for when it comes to in-game betting. The point is that you need to be doing some preparation and looking for opportunities that you think might present themselves. Don’t forget to calculate out what types of lines you’ll take given the particular opportunity. In-game lines can be all over the place, so just because what you want to happen happens, doesn’t necessarily mean that there is going to be a great value opportunity.
Always Select the Better Odds Button
This is a very short tip that should be common sense, but we’re going to point it out anyway just to be sure. Something that is going to happen a lot to you is that the odds are going to change while you’re in the process of making your bets. This does not mean you’re doing anything wrong, it’s just the nature of how it all works.
Most in-game betting platforms are going to give you the option to take a bet no matter what the odds are or take if the odds got better. One of these is awesome, and one of them is terrible. Taking any odds is just bankroll suicide. The lines don’t just move a tiny bit in the world of in-game betting. They can shit by several hundred points in a matter of seconds. NEVER under any circumstances select to take any bet regardless of the odds.
What you do want to select, though, is to take any odds that are better than the ones you initially selected. Why would you ever not want to take better odds? If anyone can think of a logical answer to that question, we would love to hear it and will gladly amend this guide.
Don’t Lose Sight of Where You Are
This is the first of our laundry list of “Don’ts.” These are the things are probably going to be the most important because they explain some of the big differences between traditional betting where people can get tripped up and give away a lot of value and potentially lose a lot of money. Let’s get started.
In-game betting happens quickly (yes, we’ve said that a million times). But, this creates opportunities for you to fire off a lot of different bets very quickly without even realizing how deep you’re into a game for. For example, let’s say that you usually bet $20 a bet. Let’s say that you put $20 on a game before the start of it and decided you’re going to keep an eye on in-game. Well, 30 seconds in the other team scores on a lucky break and you see the line shift heavily in your favor. You can’t pass up that value, so you fire off another $20. 10 more minutes into the game you see one of the opponent’s key players go down, but you don’t see the line change at all. Another great opportunity that you have to jump on, right?
Well, you’re now in this game for $60 which is 3 times what you normally like to bet on a game. We’ve seen a lot of people end up much deeper in, literally hundreds of dollars into a game without even realizing it.
Well, there is no ticker that pops up and tells you how much you have bet on a game already. All you see are the bets you are currently making. $10 or $20 here and $10 or $20 there might not seem like a lot, but it can add up really quickly.
We’re not saying to skip out on value opportunities. What we are saying is that you need to make sure that you’re sticking with your bankroll rules. Keep a running tally somewhere highly visible of how much you’re into the game for and how much you’re comfortable betting. You can be tempted in the moment to bet more than you normally would allow yourself to because you see value that is “too good to be true.” Remember, there are no sure things in sports betting, and that includes in-game betting.
Don’t Bet Against Yourself
One of the biggest no-no’s that you can do in any format of sports betting is betting against yourself (unless you are purposely hedging). While this is pretty easy to avoid when you are betting before the slate of games starts, it can actually be an issue with in-game betting.
The situation and story we always hear from people is the same. You’re betting a lot of games at once. You see this amazing line pop up that seems so wrong it’s not even funny. You quickly fire off a bet only to realize 10 minutes later that you actually just bet against an existing bet that you already had placed going the other direction.
Super Bowl Party Betting Games
As you can surely imagine, this is not a great move for your bottom line. You’re going to end up “breaking even” on your bet usually and just paying the juice to the house. Every now and then you might find that you lucked into a hedging opportunity, but that’s going to be few and far between.
Pay attention to what you are betting and know what you already have action on. Yes, we know that it’s important for you to jump on great lines quickly. But, you don’t want to do this at the expense of your existing bets. Sports betting is all about fighting for every single dollar that you have in play. If you’re accidentally trashing bets, that can ruin your profit for the day.
Don’t Force “Opportunities”
One of the biggest traits that separate skilled sports bettors and amateurs is their ability not to make a bet. Amateurs who love action have an especially hard time walking away from a chance to get more money in play. If you think it’s hard to stay away from opportunities with traditional sports betting, just wait until you get live betting opportunities placed in your hands. You’re going to have hundreds and thousands of different betting opportunities “throwing themselves” at you.
Is this awesome? Of course! But, you need to make sure that you’re not ever forcing betting opportunities just to get more action in play. Sure, this sounds easy now, but you need to make sure that it stays easy while you’re in the heat of the moment. Sports bettors have a bad habit of explaining away bets as being value opportunities when they are really just lying to themselves. If this is something you think you might be guilty of, be careful when you start in-game betting. We aren’t saying to avoid it, but you do want to make sure you don’t end up taking bad lines just to get more in play.
Don’t Use In-Game to Chase Bad Bets or Losses
Speaking of forcing action, let’s talk about something you should absolutely under no circumstances ever do (even though it’s going to be tempting). Do not use in-game betting as a way to try and chase your losses or make up for a bad bet you made on a game. This is a pretty vicious downward spiral that you want no part of. It’s possible you could get away with it once or maybe even a couple of times, but it will eventually catch up with you, and it’s going to hurt.
In-game betting should be something that you only do if you think you’ve found good value on a fresh new bet. The one exception, of course, is if you are hedging a prior bet to lock up some profit or minimize your risk.
This might not sound like something that you would ever do, but you’ll be shocked how tempting it is especially during your last game of the day. Here’s what the scenario looks like. You’re down a little bit going into your last game. The team you bet in the last game gets off to an abysmal start and there looks to be no shot of you ever winning that bet. Do you really want to end the day down? If you just pick out an in-game bet, you can potentially salvage the bad day and end off up, right?
See how easy it is to get into that line of thinking? It’s so easy to convince yourself that you can find value and save the day. But, this is the definition of chasing your losses. With traditional betting, you don’t have the means to chase once the last game has started. With in-game, though, you have the ability to chase all the way up until the end of the game. You need to be aware of this and make sure that you do whatever is necessary to prevent yourself from falling into the chase trap.
Don’t Bet Games You Aren’t Watching
Remember what we said one of the big advantages that you have over a computer is? The fact that you can see all the intangibles and game flow going on that a computer isn’t able to recognize? Well, all of that goes out the window if you’re not actually watching the game. You essentially would be in-game betting based solely on stats, numbers, and lines like the computer is. Who do you think is going to be better at crunching straight numbers, you or the computer? If you ever forget the answer to that question, just take a look at how beautiful and big the buildings are that house sportsbooks.
If you’re going to in-game bet a game, you have to be committed to it. This doesn’t mean just kind of watching. You need to be paying attention. You don’t have to be completely nerded-out and taking notes, but you do need to be focused on what is going on. Even if you don’t pick up an edge on the computer, you’re going to want to try and pick up an edge on the other bettors that are live betting on the game. If you catch something that they miss, you may be able to jump on an incredible line and make a killing.
If you’re not in a position to watch the game or you don’t really feel like “focusing,” then just stay away from in-game betting for that game. You can always make as many pre-game bets as you want and then never turn the TV on without giving up any value. But, in-game betting without watching is certainly a value killer.
Don’t In-Game Bet Too Many Games at Once
The last tip that we have in the “Don’t” category is a piggyback off of the previous tip. Don’t in-game bet more games than you can keep up with. There’s really no way that you can rightfully focus on a bunch of games well enough to be firing off value-friendly sports bets. You’ll be missing things, and you most likely won’t even realize it.
How many games is the right number? Honestly, we recommend putting in as many pre-game bets as you want, but sticking to only in-game betting one game at a time. The absolute most you could do in our opinion would be two. We’ve heard of people doing three or four at a time, but that just seems like too many. The only instance where that might be okay is if you have done extensive planning before each game and are looking for specific circumstances to happen. If you have a lot of the if/then scenarios we talked about earlier lined up to go, then it’s probably okay since you know what you’re looking for. But, you still run the risk of potentially missing something that would make you want to shy away from one of your pre-planned scenarios.
The Wrap Up
The bottom line of this entire guide is learning how to deal with the speed of in-game betting. Everything is going to come at you lightning fast, and you’re going to have to be sharp to be able to respond properly. Here’s advice that might not make a lot of sense based on the last two statements.
Football Games Betting Line
Start slow.
Betting On Nfl Football Games
In-game betting can be an incredible way to find extreme value on a lot of popular games. Keep in mind that it’s not going to be available on every game, but when it is, you should be looking to see if there are opportunities for you to take advantage of. Good luck out there!