Odds To Win Dpoy
Prior to the start of the 2020 NFL Playoffs, voters will cast their ballots on a number of the league’s most prestigious honors like the AP’s Defensive Player of the Year Award.
This award has been a tight contest through most of the season with TJ Watt and Aaron Donald in a back and forth battle over the last two months.
A few other players like Xavien Howard and Myles Garrett have also made a push late in the season to join the race, but oddsmakers have made it clear that they believe the DPOY will come down to Watt or Donald.
Aside from that, Anthony Davis has opened as the +225 odds on favorite to win the 2021 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award. Antetokounmpo is second in the current BetOnline.ag odds board at +325 while former winner Rudy Gobert is third at +350. Pure dominance from Anthony Davis. The 76ers center saw a bump in his MVP odds, but he’s +1400 odds to win his first DPOY award. Anthony Davis would be near the top of the DPOY futures board if he hadn’t injured his calf. You can back AD at +8000 odds, but who knows when he’ll actually return to the lineup. Draymond Green won the DPOY back in.
NFL betting sites have released their latest odds for the AP Defensive Player of the Year award. Let’s huddle to examine these odds, look at the arguments for the players eligible to bet on, and make an award winning prediction.
This article was written prior to Week 17’s slate of games.
Past Winners of the AP’s NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award
This prestigious defensive honor has been handed out each year since 1971. It’s decided by a panel of 50 AP sportswriters. Throughout its existence, only one time has a player received all 50 votes and that was J.J. Watt in 2014.
Watt and Lawrence Taylor are the only three time winners of this award. A handful of players have won this award twice.
Taylor, Watt, and Aaron Donald are the only players to have ever won this award in consecutive seasons. Stephon Gilmore is the reigning DPOY having won it last year with New England.
The following is a list of DPOY winners dating back to 2010:
- 2010 – Troy Polamalu (S) Pittsburgh Steelers
- 2011 – Terrell Suggs (LB) Baltimore Ravens
- 2012 – J. J. Watt (DE) Houston Texans
- 2013 – Luke Kuechly (LB) Carolina Panthers
- 2014 – J. J. Watt (DE) Houston Texans
- 2015 – J. J. Watt (DE) Houston Texans
- 2016 – Khalil Mack (DE) Oakland Raiders
- 2017 – Aaron Donald (DT) Los Angeles Rams
- 2018 – Aaron Donald (DT) Los Angeles Rams
- 2019 – Stephon Gilmore (DB) New England Patriots
AP DPOY Award Betting Odds
The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline and FanDuel:
- TJ Watt (-300)
- Aaron Donald (+210)
- Xavien Howard (+1000)
- Myles Garrett (+2000)
- Khalil Mack (+4000)
- Cameron Heyward (+5000)
- Jalen Ramsey (+5000)
- Minkah Fitzpatrick (+6500)
Realistic DPOY Contenders
The following defensive players are the only ones with a realistic chance at winning this award:
TJ Watt (-300)
TJ Watt pulled away from Aaron Donald late in the season and is now widely considered to be the odds on favorite to win the DPOY award this season.
If you’ve watched the Pittsburgh Steelers this year, before the injuries their defense was the best in the NFL. And, they were led by TJ Watt.
.@_TJWatt is the:
• 1️⃣st player in #SteelersHistory with 14.0+ sacks in multiple seasons
• 7️⃣th player to register at least 15.0 sacks & 24 TFL in a single season since 1999
• 1️⃣4️⃣th player in NFL history with at least 14.5 sacks in back-to-back seasons pic.twitter.com/6IlziVOd6J
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) December 28, 2020
On the season, Watt leads the league with 15 sacks. He also has 43 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and 1 INT. Watt is a one man wrecking ball as he disrupts opposing offenses with the same tenacity that earned his brother J.J. Watt three DPOY awards.
Watt had two sacks in Week 16 to punctuate his argument for winning this award and to pull ahead of Donald. Will TJ join J.J. as the only brothers to win this prestigious defensive award?
Aaron Donald (+210)
Where TJ Watt benefits from having great pieces all around him, Aaron Donald is the force that makes all of the other pieces around him better.
He’s constantly being double and triple teamed, yet still continues to be near the top of the league in many key stats. After Week 14, Donald was leading the NFL with 12.5 sacks. Although Watt has pulled ahead, Donald has 13.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and can change the entire game with one series.
Rams head coach Sean McVay made the following comments about Donald:
“When you look at the way that that affects and influences the game, I mean, he’s the biggest freak that he still shows up on the stat sheet.”
Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll says that Donald is as close to perfect as anyone in the league. Carroll has publicly gushed over how Donald has everything you are looking for in a player.
Donald is looking to become a three time winner of this award as he would join that exclusive club with Lawrence Taylor and J.J. Watt. To do so, he will have to beat out J.J.’s younger brother.
Xavien Howard (+1000)
The Miami Dolphins are on the cusp of making the Playoffs, which has surprised pundits and fans alike. They’re led by one of the league’s best defenses, which is buoyed by one of the best DBs in the league in Xavien Howard.
Howard leads the league with nine interceptions and also has 19 pass deflections. What makes these numbers even more impressive is that he’s constantly guarding the opposing team’s top receiver.
Consider this your alarm if you're still sleeping on X.@Iamxavienhoward#ProBowlVotepic.twitter.com/qpALrQK21z
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 16, 2020
Howard is also on the verge of setting a career high in total tackles as well. Currently, he has 47 total tackles which includes 36 solo tackles.
If Howard does somehow pull out this award, it would be the first time a Dolphins player does so since Jason Taylor in 2006.
Myles Garrett (+2000)
Unlike the other betting favorites, Garrett has only played in 13 games so far. Yet, he’s put up some impressive numbers as the leader of the Cleveland Browns defense.
Heading into the final week of the regular season, Garrett has 44 tackles, 12 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recoveries.
Myles Garrett will finish the highest-graded season of any Browns defender ever on Sunday vs Mason Rudolph (89.5) pic.twitter.com/DOscKdEQYz
— PFF (@PFF) December 29, 2020
Garrett was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week in Week 4, AFC Defensive Player of the Month in October, was voted as the top player for the Browns, and was also voted as a starter in the Pro Bowl.
Although his odds have fallen far behind Watt and Donald, Garrett has been every bit as important to his defense as the other two stars have.
Unfortunately, he’s too far behind in this race to win the DPOY award even if he has a fantastic performance against Pittsburgh in Week 17.
Longshots to Win the DPOY
The following players are All-Pro caliber defenders, but they’re longshots at best for winning this award:
Khalil Mack (+4000)
Khalil Mack is one of the most talented defenders in the NFL. Unfortunately, his numbers are down this year. In 15 games, he has 46 tackles, 8 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 1 INT.
Unless Mack has a strong performance against Green Bay in Week 17, he’s most likely going to finish with his lowest number of sacks since his rookie year. His solo tackle numbers will be a career low as well.
This really isn’t one of Mack’s finer seasons and he’s listed as a betting option more so on name recognition rather than merits.
Cameron Heyward (+5000)
One of the reasons why Pittsburgh’s defense has been so good this year is Cameron Heyward. His interior pressure has helped free up TJ Watt on the outside while drawing double teams on the inside.
Furthermore, Heyward is as strong against the run as he is at collapsing a pocket. Heyward has 30 tackles, 4 sacks, and 1 INT this season. His numbers don’t compare to other players in this prop bet, but when you watch him play, it’s clear that he is a true force along the defensive line.
Jalen Ramsey (+5000)
In addition to Aaron Donald, defensive back Jalen Ramsey has helped lead this Rams defense to the top of the league in many key statistical categories. Furthermore, it has been LA’s defense that has put them on the cusp of the Playoffs and not their once vaunted offense.
Ramsey’s numbers are down across the board. He will finish with a career low interceptions and tackles. But, I would argue that Ramsey is having the best season of his career.
The Rams have moved Ramsey all over the field from outside corner to slot corner. He’s even played some safety as well. But, the one thing that remains consistent, is that Ramsey is assigned the opposing team’s top receiver.
If you’ve watched the Los Angeles Rams this year, Ramsey has shut down an entire half of the field in many games. Additionally, he’s limited some of the league’s top receivers with his lockdown coverage.
Ramsey might not have the numbers to indicate his skills, but he has the skills to indicate that he’s one of the best defensive backs in all of football.
Minkah Fitzpatrick (+6500)
As mentioned, the Steelers have one of the best defenses in the league. So, it’s no surprise that they have three defenders in this NFL futures bet.
Like the Rams, the Steelers traded for Fitzpatrick last season and he has helped transformed the defense into a top unit week in and week out.
Fitzpatrick has 56 tackles, 4 INTs, 1 forced fumble, and 10 pass deflections all from the safety position. These are numbers typically found with corners, not safeties.
Furthermore, Fitzpatrick is on the verge of having career best numbers at the end of this season.
Who is the Defensive Player of the Year?
There are some great defensive players on this list, but it really comes down to just two: TJ Watt and Aaron Donald.
With that said, Watt has two other teammates on this list whereas Donald has just one. Furthermore, Donald is the one that’s constantly double and triple teamed whereas Watt is often getting one lineman trying to block him.
Further hammering that point is the fact that Watt did a great deal of his damage with Bud Dupree in the lineup. Dupree had 8 sacks in 11 games before going down with a torn ACL. He looked just as impressive as Watt does.
What makes Donald’s numbers even more impressive is that he does all of this from the defensive tackle position. Watt is an edge rusher and typically has interior linemen like Heyward do the dirty work.
Donald is the one doing the dirty work every series. In fact, opposing offenses game plan for stopping Donald, TJ Watt is not yet on that level.
UPDATE: Aaron Donald is still insane
— PFF (@PFF) December 27, 2020
Another argument in favor of Donald is the fact that TJ Watt won’t play in Week 17 against the Browns. Donald will play for the Rams as they try to win and secure a spot in the Playoffs.
It gives Donald a big opportunity to surpass Watt in the eyes of voters. If Donald has a big outing in a crucial game, then the voters could be swayed to pick Aaron for this award.
There’s no other defensive player the caliber of Aaron Donald in this league. The fact that he can continue to put up the numbers that he does despite the double and triple teams, despite the opposing offensive game plans, and despite everyone knowing he’s the best, is just truly remarkable.
I really like the value with Donald’s +210 odds. I think these odds will change dramatically following the conclusion of Week 17. Now is the time to bet on Donald if you think he will win the award.
For me, Aaron Donald is this year’s Defensive Player of the Year.
Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.The NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award has been dominated by pass rushers in recent history. Since 2010, seven of the last 10 winners have been pass rushers in some form, whether on the edge or at defensive tackle.
The New England Patriots’ Stephon Gilmore broke the mold last year by winning it as a cornerback, but it’s rare for a defensive back to take home this award.
In 2020, there’s a host of quality candidates, many of whom are unsurprisingly pass rushers. However, among the top eight favorites, there are two defensive backs.
We take a look at the best bets for Defensive Player of the Year in 2020 with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
2020 Defensive Player of the Year odds
Below are the eight favorites. Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Monday, May 11 at 2:20 p.m. ET.
Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams +750Khalil Mack, OLB, Chicago Bears +1000Nick Bosa, DE, San Francisco 49ers +1300Odds To Win Daytona 500 2021
Stephon Gilmore, CB, Patriots +1500T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers +1500J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans +1700Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos +1800Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers +2000Place your legal sports wagers online at BetMGM, or play in their online casino. Bet now!
2020 Defensive Player of the Year best bets
Best bet: Aaron Donald +750
Donald is the favorite, and for good reason. He’s won the award twice in his career and although his numbers dipped a bit last season, he was still deserving of consideration for the award because of the impact he has that doesn’t show up on the box score.
With DTs Michael Brockers back and A’Shawn Robinson also on the defensive line, Donald has a decent supporting cast – even though the loss of LB Dante Fowler Jr. will hurt from a pass-rush perspective. But Donald has had double-digit sacks in four of the last five years and should eclipse 10 in 2020.
Value play: T.J. Watt +1500
Watt had a strong case to win the award last season, but was beat out by Gilmore, who had a phenomenal season on arguably the best defense in the NFL. Watt had 14.5 sacks and tied for the NFL high with eight forced fumbles, hitting the QB 36 times in 16 games.
He’s durable and productive and his numbers have only improved each season he’s been in the NFL. Next season should be his best yet and he’ll certainly be in the running to win the award. At +1500, there’s a ton of upside, too.
Long-shot pick: Chandler Jones +3000
The Cardinals’ Jones has never won Defensive Player of the Year, despite leading the NFL with 96 sacks since arriving in Arizona in 2016. He had a career-high 19 sacks and an NFL-leading eight forced fumbles last season, finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting with only seven fewer votes than Gilmore.
The Cardinals should be much-improved in 2020, too, which will only help Jones’ exposure as an impact player.
Favorite To Win Dpoy
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